While the credit environment remains constructive, navigating it is becoming more difficult. Lenders are operating in a market shaped by greater uncertainty, uneven borrower resilience and emerging stress in selected segments. In this environment, traditional credit strategies and static risk settings are becoming less effective on their own.
Three messages stand out for lenders today:
- Growth remains available, but fixed risk settings are no longer enough. Selective expansion must be supported by controls that can adjust as conditions change.
- Data and AI are becoming central to better credit execution. Leading lenders are using richer data, predictive analytics and automated insights to inform risk decisions and to optimize portfolio strategy.
- Modernization is becoming a source of competitive advantage. Institutions that delay investment in adaptive credit capabilities may face weaker portfolio performance, slower response times and reduced ability to capture profitable demand.
The implication is clear: Lenders must prepare for multiple scenarios. In a volatile (but still constructive) environment, the winning model is not retrenchment—rather, it is disciplined growth supported by better customer insight, earlier risk-detection and faster action when borrower stress is detected.
A more complex operating environment for credit
VCA research points to a more fragile and faster-moving credit environment. Lenders are navigating economic uncertainty, policy shifts, market volatility and changing customer behavior. Performance is becoming less evenly distributed across borrowers, products, sectors and markets.
The backdrop: slowing growth, elevated uncertainty
2.5% 2026 Global GDP growth in World Bank June forecast
-2.8 p.p Change in 2026 MENA GDP growth in IMF April forecast vs. January
3-5x Higher U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty based on the EPU Index
These signals reinforce a clear priority for lenders: Adapt and pre-position. The goal is to protect portfolio resilience while also preserving profitable growth. That requires sharper execution across origination, account management, collections and portfolio optimization, supported by stronger data, analytics and AI-enabled decisioning.
Strategic priorities for lenders today
The case for action is becoming stronger. Lenders that strengthen segmentation, increase review frequency and act earlier can be better positioned to identify emerging risks, protect asset quality and capture profitable opportunities.
Turning data and AI into a credit advantage
Leading lenders are demonstrating that richer data, advanced analytics and AI can bolster resilience without sacrificing growth.
Alternative data is now widely used in mature markets and is expanding in emerging markets, enabling more precise decisions and improved access for thin-file or new-to-credit customers. At the same time, AI-driven decisioning platforms are helping lenders improve approval strategies, strengthen risk selection and optimize portfolio outcomes.
Adoption of data and AI in credit
Across the lifecycle, the operating model is shifting from periodic reviews based on fixed triggers to more continuous, AI-powered monitoring. Early warning signals can be generated faster, enabling earlier and more targeted intervention.
Lenders are already applying advanced analytics across acquisition, portfolio management, collections, and fraud- prevention. Generative AI is also emerging, with early use cases focused on operational efficiency, credit documentation and collections support.
Early case studies suggest that advanced AI-driven underwriting platforms can help increase approvals while also reducing risk costs.
How data and AI are applied across the credit lifecycle
To balance growth and risk in a more volatile environment, lenders are increasingly focusing on three priorities:
Delivering on these priorities requires data, analytics and domain expertise working together. This enables lenders to move faster from insight to action, improving portfolio outcomes while also sustaining growth.
Across the credit lifecycle:
- Visa Data Insights for Credit Decisions and Portfolio Optimization
- Next Gen Credit Scorecards Development
Customer acquisition |
Portfolio management |
Collections and recovery |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Policy and Underwriting Process Optimization | Dynamic Line Management Across Customer Lifecycle | Collections Health Check and Strategy Review |
Credit risk strategy is entering a new phase. Lenders face slower growth, greater downside risk and more volatile borrower behavior. The strongest institutions will not choose between growth and resilience; rather, they will build the capabilities to deliver both.
This means becoming more selective in acquisition, more dynamic in portfolio management and earlier and more targeted in collections. Alternative data, advanced analytics and AI are no longer edge capabilities. They are becoming core to modern credit decisioning and portfolio performance.
VCA is a team of thousands of payments consultants, digital marketing specialists, data scientists and economists across six continents. The combination of our deep payments consulting expertise, our economic intelligence and our breadth of data allows us to identify actionable insights and recommendations that drive better business decisions.
- Our consultants are experts in strategy, product, portfolio management, risk, digital and more with decades of experience in the payments industry.
- Our data scientists are experts in statistics, advanced analytics and machine learning, with exclusive access to insights from VisaNet, one of the largest payment networks in the world.
- Our economists understand economic conditions impacting consumer spending and provide unique and timely insights into global spending trends.
To get started, connect with VCA now to chat with an advisor or reach out directly to your dedicated representative to see how VCA can help you.
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Sources/Footnotes/Disclaimer
- Source: Nova Credit, The State of Alternative Data in Lending 2024 Survey Report, 2024.
- Source: NVIDIA, State of AI in Financial Services: 2026 Trends , 2026, survey of 800+ financial services professionals worldwide.
Forward-looking statements. This content may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally are identified by words such as “believes,” “estimates,” “expects,” “intends,” “may,” “projects,” “could,” “should,” “will,” “continue” and other similar expressions. All statements other than statements of historical fact could be forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made, are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict.
As-Is Disclaimer. Case studies, comparisons, statistics, research and recommendations are provided “AS IS” and intended for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for operational, marketing, legal, technical, tax, financial or other advice. References to AI and data reflect market trends and illustrative examples, not prescriptive guidance or performance guarantees. Visa neither makes any warranty or representation as to the completeness or accuracy of the information within this document, nor assumes any liability or responsibility that may result from reliance on such information. The Information contained herein is not intended as investment or legal advice, and readers are encouraged to seek the advice of a competent professional where such advice is required.